According to the latest report of Center for International Climate and Environemnt Research-Oslo (CICERO), the climate change change may be more serious for some other countries compared to Norway, but it will experience the climate changes. The researchers at CICERO presented which sectors will be affected from this chance in Norway.
The report referred to in the latest issue of the magazine Climate.
– There is considerable uncertainty around these results. But it appears that the sectors we are most uncertain, they can be hardest hit: Fisheries and tourism industries will probably be the industries that will mark the largest economic impacts of climate change in Norway, says researcher H. Asbjørn Åheim at CICERO.
Changes for fisheries
The temperature in Norway is expected to rise more than the global average, according to research Nor-Clim. The temperature increase will be greatest in winter, especially in north of the country. There will also be more precipitation, mostly where there is a lot of rain already.
The fishing industry may earn about 3.4 billion less than now, if the temperature in Norway decreases more than 3 degrees and the precipitation increases by 25 percent , according to the report. Loss may be greater for the western Norway and Mid-Norway, while the fisheries in northern Norway are likely to earn more. The reason for the latter is that the sea temperature in northern Norway today is relatively low, and a slightly higher temperature can improve growth conditions for fish.
Åheim emphasizes that the numbers are uncertain.
– The uncertainty is partly because scientists do not know for sure how fast the sea will warm up when the air temperature increases. One is not sure how much higher sea temperatures mean for individual growth. Our results still provides an indication of which direction we go, "he said.
Boost for tourism?
Tourism industry can, however, get a boost all around the country, according to the researchers' calculations. The industry can earn 7.8 billion more than today in 2100.
– Especially in Eastern Norway, and North Norway to earnings from this sector is going to increase, especially if climate change means that fewer Norwegians travel abroad.
Åheim emphasizes that the consequences for tourism is very uncertain.
– Tourism encompasses many parts of the society, such as retail trade and service industry, and there are no certain numbers on how much revenue the tourists provide the Norwegian economy today, "he said.
– Second, it is difficult to know how climate change will affect the tourism. Various studies conclude anything from strong correlation to no correlation. Do many tourists come here if it rains more? " Norwegians will travel more or less to foreign countries? There have been studies done on some of those questions, but we do not know for sure, "explains Åheim.
Less energy consumption in Northern Norway
The effects on agriculture, forestry, energy production and energy demand are the least uncertain areas for the research. In these sectors, there are positive impacts in all regions: The effects on forest turns out most of Eastern Norway and the Middle Norway, while the effects on power production offer the greatest positive impact in northern Norway, where one is expected to use less energy for heating because of the possible increase in temperature.
Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the number of extreme weather events.
– THe results of the research received much attention, but according to our calculations, the economic costs of this seems to be relatively small, because the damage is very limited geographically, "said Asbjorn Åheim.