The Norwegian Nobel Institute says it will look into claims of a possible information leak after unusual betting activity preceded the announcement of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, according to NRK.
Machado, who received the 2025 Peace Prize for her work promoting democratic rights in Venezuela, became the overwhelming favorite on betting platform Polymarket just hours before the official announcement. Her odds reportedly jumped from around 3 percent to nearly 70 percent overnight.
According to NRK, a newly created account on Polymarket earned an estimated half a million Norwegian kroner — roughly $45,000 — by betting on Machado’s victory.
Analyst Calls Activity “Suspicious”
Robert Næss, Investment Director at Nordea, told NRK that the pattern suggests the bettor may have had access to inside information.
“You normally don’t see such sudden movements in betting markets. It’s very suspicious,” Næss said.
“Someone must have known that Machado was going to win. Why choose the Nobel Peace Prize, this particular candidate, and invest so much money in the middle of the night?”
Næss added that while the identity of the account holder remains unclear, the trading volume was unusually high.
Nobel Committee Denies History of Leaks
Jørgen Watne Frydnes, Chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, rejected the suggestion that confidential information could have been leaked.
“I don’t believe there has ever been a leak in the history of the Nobel Prize. I find it very unlikely,” Frydnes told NTB, Norway’s national news agency.
The Nobel Committee maintains strict secrecy ahead of each year’s prize announcements. Only a few individuals within the committee and the Nobel Institute know the final decision before it is made public.
Institute to Examine Claims
Later on Friday, Kristian Berg Harpviken, Director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, told Finansavisen that the institute would examine the allegations.
“One possibility could be a personal leak, but a digital leak is perhaps more likely,” Harpviken said.
He emphasized that the inquiry would be preliminary, aimed at determining whether there was any credible evidence of information being shared before the announcement.
Background
María Corina Machado was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her long-standing efforts to promote democracy and human rights in Venezuela, where she leads the opposition against President Nicolás Maduro’s government.
The Nobel Peace Prize is traditionally announced in Oslo, and the laureate is selected through a confidential process overseen by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
