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News Analysis: Norway Election Results

In the elections, Conservative party and current prime minister’s party Labor competed for leading the coalition. According to the official results, Labor Party came first but they have lost 5 percent point and 10 seats compared the previous elections. Also their other coalition members had difficulties to reach the same vote level. One of the coalition members, SV barely reached election threshold. 

Considering the 85 mandatory seats for forming the government, the prime minister did not have many options.  Socialist coalition parties had in total only 71 seats. So, the bourgeois parties, Høyre, Progress Party (FrP), Christian Democrats (KrF) and Liberals (Venstre) will form the government. 

22 July Effect

We witness in this election how the political landscape of Norway has been redesigned after 22 July terrorist attacks. Labor Party has dramatically recovered its losing votes after sharp drop in the beginning of 2011, while the Progress Party, which was the second largest party, had lost almost 10 seats in this election. Conservative Party which gained only 16 percent support in the last election has become the best profit making one by increasing its seats by 18.

These voting preferences may have a discouraging effect on Progress Party’s fierce anti-immigration rhetoric. Actually its impact was felt during the election campaigns. Failing health system, strong statism, bad road conditions, high level of taxation for business were the main themes of election camapaigns. 

One of the striking feature of the election campaigns was that all parties from both fractions deliberatly avoided from immigration debate. This may be because they focused on only one immigration group, Roma people. Still, changing public domain which is dominated with a more tolerant stance for a multicultural society after 22 July had a positive effect on political parties.

FrP Question

The big question for the Conservative party, which promised more liberal policies, better health service, better roads and education as well as a business condition, is how they will cooperate with the Progress Party which is not a popular coalition candidate for parties from both left and right wings. 

To some, this coalition is destined to collapse soon due to the deep political divisions between these two parties. Trade Minister from Labor Party Giske is one of those who expects failure of a Conservative-FrP coalition. He calls his party members to be prepared for taking over the government after one year in case of the coalition’s dissolve. But there are optimists who argues KrF, Venstre and Conservatives will balance FrP’s fierce stance, so the coalition will work without problem.

In the presence of so many unbeknownst factors, it is hard to expect a dramatic change in Norway or failure or success of the new government but there is one fact that Erna Solberg will be second female prime minister of Norway, which is a remarking event in the 100th anniversary of women suffrage in the country.

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